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Is the market expecting US inflation to cool significantly this year?


What will we see for inflation this year?
Does the market expect inflation to cool significantly this year?

Reported inflation statistics lag behind actual inflation, which has slowed more than official numbers suggest.

For instance, owner-equivalent rent was 2/3 of the increase in reported inflation last week, but those tracking actual rental contracts signed can see that rental increases by owners have slowed down much more.

Similarly, car insurance was the rest of the increase, but already we know car price increases have halted in their tracks. Car insurance rates follow used and new car prices, so the market knows that it is just a matter of time before car insurance rates come back down.


Milton Friedman said inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. If money supply increases are arrested, therefore, inflation should vanish. This is exactly what has happened. Since the Fed initiated quantitative tightening by ceasing purchases of treasury and mortgage bonds 18 months ago, they have brought the money supply steadily down. As long as the Fed continues to reduce or flat-line the money supply, we should not see a return to inflation.


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